Strategic Foresight
Strategic Foresight
The Project "Digital Fragmentations and Digital Sovereignty" will be funded by the TRA 4
International Security Forum 2021
The International Security Forum Bonn 2021 is a high-level international event to ensure a dialogue on contemporary topics of foreign and security politics. The goal of the International Security Forum is to ensure a debate between experts and practitioners, to identify vital aspects of a successful European foreign and security policy, and develop holistic strategical solutions for pressing challenges.
September 29 - October 2, 2021
Hosted by the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this year's forum will take place mostly digitally.
For an overview of all public events click here
Pre-Event | Main Day | Special Focus Day | Strategic Foresight Workshop | ISFB Report 2020
Tuesday, September 28, 2021 - Pre-Event "Common Values, Security, and Democracy"
CASSIS in collaboration with the Centre for Global Security and Governance, University of Aberdeen, and the Keogh School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame.
3.30 p.m. - 4.30 p.m. CEST - "Religion and Values in a World out of Joint"
Gudrun Kugler, Member of Parliament of the Austrian Parliament and Spokesperson for Human Rights and Migration of the Austrian People's Party, Vienna
Chair: Ulrich Schlie, Henry-Kissinger-Professor for Security and Strategic Studies, Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
4.30 p.m. - 4.40 p.m. - Welcoming Remarks
Scott Appleby, Dean of the Keogh School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN
4.45 p.m. - 5.30 p.m. - "Value Based Politics in a World out of Joint"
Milojko Spajić, Minister of Finance and Social Welfare of Montenegro, Podgorica
Chair: Ulrich Schlie, Henry-Kissinger-Professor for Security and Strategic Studies, Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
6.00 p.m. - 6.45 p.m. - “Bipartisanship and Democracy in a Digital Age”
Robert Traynham, Head of External Affairs, Facebook Inc., Washington DC (Dr Traynham will be speaking in a personal capacity)
Thomas Weber, Chair of History and International Affairs and Director of CGSG, University of Aberdeen
Chair: Colin Barr, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame
6.50 p.m. - 7.50 p.m. CEST - "Religious Values, Democracy, and the Transatlantic Future"
Josefina Echavarria Alvarez, Director of the Peace Accords Matrix, University of Notre Dame
Clemens Sedmak, Professor of Ethics & Director of the Nanovic Institute for European Studies, University of Notre Dame
Stefan Heid, Professor of Liturgical History and Hagiography at the Pontifical Institute of Christian Archaeology, Rome
Chair: Thomas Weber, Professor of History and International Affairs and Director of CGSG, University of Aberdeen
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 - Main Day "Towards a Green Deal and Beyond: Germany, America and the World Ahead”
- digital, Stream on Youtube -
4.30 p.m. - 4.45 p.m. CEST - Welcoming Remarks
Michael Hoch, Rector, University of Bonn
4.45 p.m. - 5.00 p.m. CEST - Introduction
Ulrich Schlie, Henry-Kissinger-Professor for Security and Strategic Studies and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
5.00 p.m. - 5.35 p.m. CEST - Keynote Speeches
Peter Beyer, Member of the German Bundestag, Coordinator of Transatlantic Cooperation, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin
Ursula Heinen-Esser, Minister for Environment, Agriculture, Conservation and Consumer Protection of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia, Dusseldorf
Woodward Clark Price, Chargé d’Affaires ad interim at the United States Embassy to Germany, Berlin
6.00 p.m. - 7.00 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion
"Towards a New Transatlantic Green Deal"
Janusz Reiter, Former Ambassador and founder of the Centre for International Relations, Warsaw
Jürgen Trittin, Member of the German Bundestag, Alliance 90/The Greens’, Berlin
Kirsten Westphal, Head of Project “Geopolitics of Energy Transformation”, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
Richard Burt, Former US-Ambassador in Germany, Managing Partner McLarty Associates, Washington D.C.
Chair: Friedbert Pflüger, Head of European Cluster for Climate, Energy and Resource Security, CASSIS, University of Bonn
7.15 p.m. - 7.25 p.m. - Introduction
Rick Waters, Deputy Assistant Secretary for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, Washington D.C. (via Zoom)
7.25 p.m. - 8.45 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion
"The Rise of Asia and the Future of Transatlantic Relations"
- Hybrid, Stream on Youtube -
Britta Jacob, Senior Policy Advisor on International and EU Affairs, Alliance 90/The Greens’, Berlin
Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, Deputy Chairman of the FDP Parliamentary Group of the German Bundestag, Berlin (via Zoom)
Jeffrey Rathke, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington D.C. (via Zoom)
Karl-Heinz Kamp, Special Envoy of the Political Director at the German Ministry of Defense, Berlin
Theresa Fallon, Director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies (CREAS), Brussels
Chair: Benjamin Becker, Director of the AmerikaHaus NRW e.V., Cologne
Thursday, September 30, 2021 - Special Focus Day "The Rise of Eastern Modernity? European Responses to China’s Global Role”
Presented by the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation e.V.
All Special Focus Day events will take place under Chatham House Rules.
9.00 a.m. - 9.30 a.m. CEST - Welcoming Remarks and Introduction
Volker Kronenberg, Dean of the Faculty of the Arts and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
Katja Dörner, Mayor of Bonn
Peter Fischer-Bollin, Head of the Division Analysis and Consulting of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), Berlin
Chair: Maximilian Mayer, Professor for International Relations and Global Politics of Technology, CASSIS, University of Bonn
9.30 a.m. - 9.45 a.m. CEST - Keynote
"A (super)power in the making. Will Europe stand its ground?"
- Stream on Youtube -
Norbert Röttgen, Member of the German Bundestag, CDU, and Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Berlin
9.50 a.m. - 10.35 a.m. - Session 1
"China: Meeting the Systemic Challenge"
Markus Kerber, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building, and Community, Berlin
Chair: Sarah Kirchberger, Head of Asia-Pacific Strategy and Security at the Institute for Security Policy, Kiel University (ISPK)
10.40 a.m. - 11.40 a.m. CEST - Panel Discussion 1
"The China Challenge: What Does Systemic Competition Mean for Democracies?"
Dingding CHEN, Professor of International Relations at Jinan University, Guangzhou
Ulrich Lechte, Member of the German Bundestag, FDP, and Chairman of the Subcommittee on United Nations, International Organizations and Globalization, Berlin
Kristin Shi-Kupfer, Professor for Sinology, University of Trier, and Senior Associate Fellow at MERICS, Berlin
Justyna Szczudlik, Deputy Head of Research and Head of Asia-Pacific Programme, The Polish Institute of International Affairs, Warsaw
Shogo Suzuki, Senior Lecturer, University of Manchester
Chair: Mayssoun Zein Al Din, Executive Director, Academy of International Affairs NRW, Bonn
11.45 a.m. - 12.45 p.m. CEST - Keynote Speech and Discussion
“The Indo Pacific: China’s rise, major power friction – the perspective of a middle power”
Philip Green, Australian Ambassador to Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein
Chair: Wolfram Hilz, Professor for Political Science, and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
2.30 p.m. - 3.30 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion 2
"Global Public Goods in an Age of Transformations: Problem-solving with China?"
Dan Banik, Professor and Director of the Oslo SDG Initiative, Centre for Development and the Environment (SUM), University of Oslo
Doris Fischer, Chair of China Business and Economics, University of Würzburg
Jonathan Glennie, Principal Associate, Joep Lange Institute, Amsterdam
Anna-Katharina Hornidge, Director of the German Development Institute (GDI), Bonn
Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development (CGD), Washington D.C.
Marina Rudyak, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Heidelberg
Chair: Daniela Braun, Foreign and Security Policy Officer, Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), Berlin
3.35 p.m. - 4.35 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion 3
"Geopolitics, Technology and Security: How to Avoid a Cold War 2.0?"
Cuihong CAI, Professor of International Relations, Fudan University, Shanghai
Mathieu Duchâtel, Director of the Asia Program, Institut Montaigne, Paris
Jerker Hellström, Director of the Swedish Center for China Studies (SCCS), Stockholm
Sarah Kirchberger, Head of Asia-Pacific Strategy and Security at the Institute for Security Policy, Kiel University (ISPK)
Angela Stanzel, Associate, Asia Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
Paul Triolo, Head, Global Tech Policy, Eurasia Group, New York City
Chair: David Merkle, Desk Officer China, Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), Berlin
5.20 p.m. - 6.20 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion 4
"Risks, Priorities and Strategic Options for Europe"
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Head of Riga Stradins University China Studies Centre and Head of the New Silk Road Programme at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Riga
Dirk Brengelmann, Former Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, and former NATO-Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy
Xuewu Gu, Director of the Center for Global Studies (CGS), University of Bonn
Mareike Ohlberg, Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS), Berlin
Ralph Weber, Associate Professor for European and Global Studies, University of Basel
Chair: Jana Puglierin, Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ (ECFR) Berlin office
6.20 p.m. - 6.30 p.m. CEST - Conclusion
Maximilian Mayer, Professor for International Relations and Global Politics of Technology, CASSIS, University of Bonn
Friday & Saturday, October 1 - 2 , 2021 - Strategic Foresight Workshop | (by Invitation only!)
In cooperation with the Young German Council on Foreign Relations, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom and the Hanns Seidel Foundation
- Online & in German -
October 1, 2021
9.00 a.m. - 7.30 p.m. CEST - Workshop
Welcoming address and methodological input
Construction of alternative scenarios
Consistency and consequence analysis
Presentation and discussion of scenarios
6 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. CEST - Panel
"The Importance of Strategic Foresight with Regards to the Rise of China"
- Open to the public - Link for registration.
Heinrich Pfriemer, Global Head Industry Business Unit Defense and Security at SAP
Schlüsselfaktoren, Zukunftsprojektionen und Wildcards - vage Vermutungen oder profunde Antizipation über künftige Entwicklungen der Internationalen Politik?
Als Teilveranstaltung des International Security Forum Bonn 2021 fokussiert unser Strategic Foresight Workshop – „Strategic China“ auf die methodenbasierte Entwicklung der strategischen Interessen Chinas sowie deren Adaption innerhalb eines multidimensionalen Ansatzes aus einer deutschen, europäischen und US-Amerikanischen Perspektive. Die unterschiedlichen Blickwinkel ermöglichen den Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmern die Evaluation von aktuellen sicherheits- und geopolitischen Umfeldszenarien. Das erstellte Lagebild des Potenzials des „strategischen Chinas“ trägt dazu bei, mögliche Herausforderungen und Chancen für westliche Nationen zu identifizieren.
Doch was charakterisiert grundsätzlich die Methode der strategischen Vorausschau? Welche Rolle spielt sie in der Praxis? Die Methode der strategischen Vorausschau hat als probates Analyse- und Forschungsinstrument der Wissenschaft längst Einzug in Politik und Wirtschaft gefunden. Ob Arbeitsansätze von Bundesministerien, Forschungsinstitute mit explizitem Fokus auf die strategische Vorausschau wie dem Institut der Europäischen Union für Sicherheitsstudien oder die politische Forderung nach einem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat. All dies verdeutlicht den Wunsch sowie die Notwendigkeit nach strategischem Handeln innerhalb der Bundesrepublik und der Europäischen Union. Unternehmen versuchen traditionell ihr Handeln strategisch auszurichten und treiben hier auch durch anwachsende Herausforderungen die Professionalisierung von Vorausschau und Strategieentwicklung voran. Angesichts internationaler Machtverschiebungen und veränderten Engagement alter Ordnungsmächte wird deutlich, dass die strategische Vorausschau weniger ein Blick in die Glaskugel, als eine profunde Analyse ausgewählter Faktoren und robuster Daten ist, um so grundlegende Fragen des 21. Jahrhunderts zu beantworten und aktives außenpolitisches Engagement zukunftsfähig und verantwortungsvoll zu gestalten, aber auch in einem sich wandelnden Umfeld gewinnbringend unternehmerisch tätig zu sein. Doch inwiefern divergieren Erwartungshaltungen und die politische Realität? Was sind Erfahrungen aus der Praxis, sowohl auf politischer, wie auf privatwirtschaftlicher Seite?
Konnten wir Ihr Interesse wecken? Nutzen Sie die Möglichkeit und erfahren Sie mehr über die zeitgenössische Analysemethode innerhalb unseres öffentlichen Panels des Strategic Foresight Workshops – Strategic China!
October 2, 2021
9.00 a.m. - 10.00 a.m. CEST Breakfast Input
"Perspectives from China's Immediate Neighborhood"
- Open to the public - Link for registration.
Anna Marti, Office Director of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung, Taiwan
Bernhard Selinger, Representative of the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung, Korea
Chair: Enrico Fels, Managing Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
Jenseits der Competition of Superpowers, der neuen US-amerikanischen Indo-Pazifik-Strategie und einem global vernetzten Europa - Perspektiven aus Chinas direkter Nachbarschaft: Ob “One Belt One Road Initiative”, der Handelskonflikt zwischen China und den USA, oder Kalter Krieg 2.0 - der Aufstieg Chinas zur globalen Supermacht ist ein omnipräsentes Thema der Berichterstattung. Im Vordergrund der medialen Auseinandersetzung stehen dabei fortwährend Evaluationen und Strategieoptionen westlicher Nationen und Allianzen gegenüber Chinas wachsender Macht auf wirtschaftlicher, militärischer und diplomatischer Ebene.
In der zweiten öffentlichen Veranstaltung unseres Strategic Foresight Workshops wollen wir über die westlich-zentrierte Perspektive hinausgehen und aufzeigen, wie der Aufstieg Chinas aus unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft bewertet wird. In welcher Weise gleichen oder divergieren die Bedrohungsperzeptionen mit denen des Westens? Welche Handlungs- und Strategieempfehlungen im Umgang mit China werden in Taiwan und Südkorea formuliert, die sich in viel stärkeren Abhängigkeits- und Einflussverhältnissen befinden? Inwiefern bieten politische Paradigmen aus Chinas direkter Nachbarschaft untereinander Kooperationsmöglichkeiten oder bergen Synergieeffekte, im Sinne neuer Strategieoptionen und Handlungsempfehlungen für den Westen?
Zum Ende unseres diesjährigen International Security Forum Bonn bietet auch unser zweites öffentliches Panel des Strategic Foresight Workshops wertvolle Perspektiven auf aktuelle Herausforderungen der internationalen Politik. In Ergänzung zu unserem Panel: „Die Bedeutung der strategischen Vorausschau“ stellt der zweite Vortrag zudem eine ideale Möglichkeit dar, neue Perspektiven durch VertreterInnen unserer Kooperationspartner vor Ort kennenzulernen und somit ein holistisches Verständnis zeitgenössischer Problemstellungen zu entwickeln.
Zusammen mit unseren Kooperationspartner freuen wir uns auch dieses Jahr einen spannenden Workshop mit ausgewählten Gästen und praktischen Inputs zu veranstalten. Nutzen Sie die Möglichkeit und erweitern Sie Ihre Kenntnisse um Perspektiven aus Chinas direkter Nachbarschaft innerhalb unseres zweiten öffentlichen Panels des Strategic Foresight Workshops – Strategic China!
9.00 a.m. - 4.15 p.m. CEST - Workshop
Determine fields of actions and options
Development of a suitable and robust strategy
Evaluation of the strategy
Presentation of strategy options
Debriefing
Overview of all public program items
Tuesday, September 28, 2021 - Pre-Event "Common Values, Security & Democracy"
3.30 p.m. - 3.00 p.m. CEST - "Religion and Values in a World out of Joint"
4.45 p.m. - 5.30 p.m. CEST - "Value Based Politics in World out of Joint"
6.00 p.m. - 6.45 p.m. CEST - "Bipartisanship and Democracy in a Digital Age"
6.50 p.m. - 7.50 p.m. CEST - "Religious Values, Democracy, and the Transatlantic Future"
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 - Main Day "Towards a Green Deal and Beyond: Germany, America and the World Ahead”
6.00 p.m. - 7.00 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion - "Towards a new Transatlantic Green Deal"
7.15 p.m. - 8.45 p.m. CEST - Panel Discussion - "The Rise of Asia and the Future of Transatlantic Relations"
Thursday, September 30, 2021 - Special Focus Day "The Rise of Eastern Modernity? European Responses to China’s Global Role”
9.30 a.m. - 9.45 a.m. CEST - Keynote by Norbert Röttgen, Member of the German Bundestag, CDU, and Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Berlin
Friday & Saturday, October 1 - 2 , 2021 - Strategic Foresight Workshop
October 1, 2021 - 6.00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. CEST - Panel - "The Importance of Strategic Foresight with Regards to the Rise of China" - Link for registration.
October 2, 2021 - 9.00 a.m. - 10.00 a.m. CEST Breakfast Input - "Perspectives from China's Immediate Neighborhood" - Link for registration.
Would you like to know more about the Forum? Check out the report of last year's forum.
