Dr. Frank Umbach maintained his assessment that a regime change in Iran remains highly unlikely. On the one hand, the protest movement lacks organizational structure and a charismatic leader; on the other hand, the regime’s instruments of repression remain too strong for an overthrow to be feasible in the foreseeable future.
In addition to the population’s acute economic hardships, Dr. Umbach also identifies fears of further escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran as a driving force behind the demonstrations. It has become increasingly clear that Iran’s nuclear program possesses highly enriched uranium and shows no willingness to abandon its ambitions.
A further strike against Iran’s nuclear program could align with U.S. interests and would further destabilize the situation on the ground. However, according to Dr. Frank Umbach, it is difficult to predict whether such a step will be taken.