Dr. Frank Umbach emphasized that shortages of energy sources such as kerosene are not yet foreseeable. Even if the sea route were to open up in the short term, it could take months or even years to fill the resulting supply gap and rebuild destroyed supply capacities. There is also a risk that certain consumers will be prioritized in the supply chain, and in case of doubt, Germany would also have to take into account the security of supply in other EU member states.
Dr. Moritz Brake drew attention to the bottleneck that has arisen in the closely interconnected global market. He argued that Iran’s naval blockade is already part of an economic war against Germany and Europe, to which no proactive response has yet been mounted. Even in the event of a potential peace agreement, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz would pose a danger to the Gulf states and a threat to the global economy.