02. June 2025

Ali Fathollah-Nejad on KAS online: U.S.–Iran Talks Reach Critical Stage Ali Fathollah-Nejad on KAS online: U.S.–Iran Talks Reach Critical Stage

Negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have reached a turning point. While Washington's position continues to evolve, Tehran remains largely unwilling to make concessions. With the next round of talks approaching, a resolution remains elusive.

Ali Fathollah-Nejad bei KAS online: US-Iran-Gespräche erreichen kritische Phase
Ali Fathollah-Nejad bei KAS online: US-Iran-Gespräche erreichen kritische Phase © pixabay.com
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A key difference from earlier discussions is that the current diplomatic process appears to go beyond the model of a "mini-Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA). The positions of both sides regarding a new nuclear deal differ significantly, particularly concerning Iran's ballistic missile program and its regional policies.

The recent severe explosions on April 26, which incapacitated Iran's most important port near Bandar Abbas, exacerbate the country's already precarious economic situation. The incident is linked to imports of chemicals from China, which are needed for the production of solid-fuel ballistic missiles. A potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran that does not align with Israel's security interests, especially regarding the dismantling of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, could lead to further Israeli military strikes against Iranian facilities—possibly with Washington's support if negotiations fail.

A key difference from earlier discussions is that the current diplomatic process appears to go beyond the model of a "mini-Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA). The positions of both sides regarding a new nuclear deal differ significantly, particularly concerning Iran's ballistic missile program and its regional policies.

The recent severe explosions on April 26, which incapacitated Iran's most important port near Bandar Abbas, exacerbate the country's already precarious economic situation. The incident is linked to imports of chemicals from China, which are needed for the production of solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

A potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran that does not align with Israel's security interests, especially regarding the dismantling of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, could lead to further Israeli military strikes against Iranian facilities—possibly with Washington's support if negotiations fail.

Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad is a German–Iranian political scientist and author with a focus on Iran, the Middle East, and the post-unipolar world order. He is Founder and Director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG), a think-tank devoted to exploring transformations and promoting a foreign policy that reconciles interests and values. He is also a 2022 McCloy Fellow on Global Trends of the American Council on Germany (ACG). Among his publications are, most recently, The Islamic Republic in Existential Crisis: The Need for a Paradigm Shift in the EU’s Iran Policy (2023, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Chaillot Paper), the much-acclaimed book Iran in an Emerging New World Order (2021, Palgrave), The Islamic Republic of Iran Four Decades On: The 2017/18 Protests Amid a Triple Crisis (2020, Brookings), where he suggested the start of a long-term revolutionary process in Iran. His forthcoming book is titled Iran – How the West is Betraying its Values and Interests (in German, Aufbau).

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