Prof. Dr. Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, political scientist and expert on armed conflicts in the post-Soviet space, explained what Putin will expect from his meeting with Trump, under what conditions the Russian president will end his war of aggression against Ukraine, and how a possible peace agreement might look like. The political scientist pointed out that Putin first intends to present his strict peace conditions to Trump so that the US president can pass them on to Zelensky and the Europeans. Although Putin is fundamentally interested in peace, he is demanding conditions that would require Ukraine to pay a high price. These include the integration of Crimea and the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia into the Russian Federation. In addition, Putin cannot accept Ukraine's membership in NATO, said Professor Heinemann-Grüder.
According to Prof. Dr. Heinemann-Grüder, Putin would also rule out the possible deployment of a coalition of the willing, i.e., a force consisting of European soldiers and under European command to secure the Russian-Ukrainian front. This is because Putin would only approve a peacekeeping mission that is legitimized by a UN resolution and commanded by a state that has “nothing to do with NATO, India for example.” At the end of the discussion, Prof. Dr. Heinemann-Grüder pointed out that Russia is definitely interested in a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. In addition to the increasingly gloomy mood within the Russian armed forces, whose soldiers continue to suffer heavy losses, Russia's economy cannot afford tougher US sanctions. Putin fears that President Trump could impose secondary sanctions on countries that continue to trade with Russia, including Russia's strategically important allies China and India, Professor Heinemann-Grüder said. Such sanctions would certainly have the potential to further weaken Russia's economy, according to Prof. Dr. Heinemann-Grüder.