30. November 2022

‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany

Prof. Ulrich Schlie and Dr. Andreas Lutsch

"Events related to the Arab uprisings, ISIS’s rise to power and Russia’s aggression against parts of Ukraine in 2014 posed complex, though distinct challenges for the Federal Republic of Germany. How well were German leaders and officials informed about nascent as well as short-term developments beforehand and once these crises erupted? The widely shared appearance of sharp discontinuity in the way related historical processes unfolded raises questions about the degree to which decision makers and officials in government were taken by surprise."

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"It is to be hoped that the profound experiences with international crises since the 2010s, with the COVID-19 pandemic and with catastrophes due to climate-dependent weather extremes will raise awareness in Germany for the necessities of better crisis preparedness, of a more efficient coordination of the instruments required for security policy, and, in the end, of a deeper understanding of security policy which is appropriate for its actual strategic significance and for dealing with structural changes in international relations." 

Dr. Andreas Lutsch is Junior Professor for Intelligence Analysis at the German Federal School of Public Administration since June 2019.

Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie is Director of the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) and holds the
Henry Kissinger Professorship of Security and Strategic Studies at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology.


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