Prof. Dr. Heinemann-Grüder warned that despite promises made since 2003, actual EU accession by the Balkan states is unlikely. The EU runs the risk of repeating Turkey's fate, which would lead to disappointment and could be exploited by China. Instead of accession, the EU would be more likely to offer privileged partnerships similar to that of the UK, which could include improved trade relations or youth exchanges. Scholz had driven the process forward more dynamically than the current chancellor.
Prof. Dr. Heinemann-Grüder saw North Macedonia and Montenegro as better positioned, while Serbia (conflict with Kosovo) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (existential uncertainties) had poorer chances. China acts as an investor in strategic infrastructure and soft power through media and scholarships, while Russia appeals to Orthodox commonalities, oil interests, and Serbian networks. Compared to Turkey, whose accession would be risky due to internal conflicts and fears about voting weight, the Western Balkans offer potential for labor and defense cooperation without comparable intensity of unresolved problems.