Although this is the declared goal of Israel and the US, Dr. Frank Umbach considers it highly unlikely. The attacks on Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities have not been sufficiently successful, which is why another strike against the nuclear program was foreseeable. In addition, Iran has shown little willingness to compromise in the last 20 years of negotiations. The lack of progress in the negotiations was ultimately the deciding factor for the attack, according to Dr. Frank Umbach.
He is also critical of the possibility of a popular uprising. There have been better times in recent years to initiate such an uprising and support it with military intervention, such as during the recent riots. However, these have now been largely crushed and suppressed. According to Dr. Frank Umbach's prognosis, a serious opportunity would only arise if parts of the Revolutionary Guards turned their backs on the regime and supported an uprising.