Around one-fifth of global oil trade currently passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This crucial route is now impassable due to the war in Iran, which, according to Dr. Moritz Brake, will lead to shortages on the oil markets and also jeopardize the supply of food and other essential goods to neighboring countries. Alternative routes over land or via the Red Sea could only absorb a fraction of the volume, according to Dr. Moritz Brake.
The effects are already clearly visible in the price increases at the pumps. Although higher oil prices would enable new oil sources to be tapped, easing sanctions against Russia – as recently called for – is not an option.
Dr. Moritz Brake also emphasized that although Europe is less affected by the expansion of renewable energies, the amount of renewable energy is not yet sufficient to compensate for the entire oil-based economy.
In conclusion, Dr. Moritz Brake stated that an escort service, as announced by US President Donald Trump, would hardly be able to end the blockade. Ultimately, the risk would remain with the shipping companies, which are hardly willing to take it, Dr. Moritz Brake concluded.