In a contribution published on the website of the American-German Institute on 18 December, Dr. Iulian Romanyshyn addresses the central question of possible security guarantees for Ukraine. At the core of his analysis is a distinction between two fundamental approaches: treaty-based security guarantees—such as those embodied in collective defense systems like NATO—and material security guarantees, expressed through the continuous provision of military capabilities.
In Ukraine’s specific case, Romanyshyn argues that material security guarantees currently represent the only realistic and effective instrument. Given that the United States has ceased direct weapons deliveries to Ukraine, Europe, he contends, now bears an immediate responsibility to compensate for this gap in security policy. At the same time, Ukraine possesses a solid foundation of its own, particularly in terms of substantial troop strength and a growing industrial base in the defense sector.
In this context, Europe could play an effective role primarily through financial and industrial support—for example, by financing defense equipment produced in the United States or by making targeted investments in Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. In this way, material security guarantees could be meaningfully reinforced without resorting to formal mutual defense commitments.
In addition to these material guarantees, Romanyshyn discusses the option of deploying troop contingents from a so-called “coalition of the willing” to help secure a potential ceasefire. The signaling effect of a willingness to station ground forces in Ukraine, he argues, should not be underestimated. Above all, such a step would demonstrate to the United States that Europe is capable of taking responsibility for its own security, thereby helping to sustain American commitment to the alliance.
Overall, Romanyshyn identifies a strategic turning point in Ukraine’s security policy development. The country, he concludes, has reached a stage at which it is increasingly transitioning from a passive recipient of external security assistance to an active provider of security—such as through contributions in the field of drone defense. This shift not only alters Ukraine’s role within the European security architecture, but also reshapes the understanding of security guarantees in the 21st century.