In light of Marine Le Pen’s rising poll numbers ahead of the 2027 French presidential election, concerns are growing in Germany about the collapse of the Franco-German engine and, ultimately, the European Union. To guard against a takeover by the National Rally, some quarters are calling for “de-risking” with regard to France. However, this position is countered by the argument that while a Le Pen victory would indeed cause significant upheaval, it would not necessarily lead to a break with the EU. Landry Charrier explains which factors play a role in this.
Two key points are cited: First, France’s high national debt limits the financial leeway for a sustained confrontational course toward Brussels, as an aggressive stance could be penalized by rising interest rates on the financial markets—as evidenced by the recent multi-year high in yields on ten-year French government bonds. Second, the fragmentation of the National Assembly would limit the room for maneuver of a potential President Le Pen. Even after new elections, an absolute majority is by no means certain.
In the event of so-called “cohabitation”—where the executive and legislative branches are dominated by different political forces—additional constitutional uncertainties would arise, as the division of powers in the areas of foreign and defense policy is not clearly defined.
At the same time, attention is turning to Germany itself: According to Charrier, the Federal Republic has so far tended to use its growing military and financial strength for national rather than European purposes. This situation is being viewed with concern in Paris and other European capitals, especially as the U.S. is increasingly withdrawing from its leadership role in Europe. A potential success by the AfD in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt is also seen as a sign of Germany’s growing political unpredictability.
The conclusion is that while “de-risking” may suggest security in the short term, increased mutual dependence could represent a more sustainable safeguard in light of an emerging European power vacuum.