It was foreseeable that Russia might halt the supply of Kazakh oil. The question now is to what extent the affected refinery is prepared. Kazakhstan, too, has been severely affected, as the crucial European market has now collapsed.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remains critical: despite the destruction caused by the attacks by the U.S. and Israel, Iran has emerged politically stronger. With regard to securing the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely that the Europeans would carry out a potential mine-clearing mission without U.S. protection.