Dr. Umbach emphasized that recent weeks had once again highlighted the gap between the EU's aspiration to be a geopolitically relevant player and its actual influence. While Brussels mostly acts reactively and US President Trump only involves the EU to a limited extent, Europe nevertheless has important levers at its disposal, such as sanctions, security guarantees, and the issue of reconstruction financing, which France in particular is using in an effort to bring Europe back into play.
Dr. Umbach described Ukraine's possible accession to NATO as a key issue in the negotiations. Although non-alignment is enshrined in the 1997 NATO Founding Act and was accepted by Russia at the time, Moscow continues to reject Ukrainian accession. In his view, if NATO were to permanently impose certain memberships, this would constitute a serious breach of European security principles with global consequences. For this reason, work is now underway on a transition period without Ukrainian NATO membership.
Dr. Umbach recalled that Russia had in fact accepted non-alignment in the past, as evidenced by the fact that Russian troops on the border with Finland, which has since joined NATO, had been greatly reduced. For disputed Ukrainian territories, Umbach outlined possible transitional models with neutral status and international, for example UN-supported, administration, followed by free elections; however, he also pointed to practical problems such as the mass exodus of the population. He warned that ceding Crimea to Russia would be highly risky in military terms in the long term, especially for several NATO countries on the Black Sea.