According to Dr. Landry Charrier, an acquittal for Marine Le Pen is highly unlikely given the overwhelming body of evidence. The French judiciary, he argues, is not swayed by the name or the political role previously held by the defendant, as demonstrated by the Sarkozy case. Consequently, it appears very unlikely that Marine Le Pen will be able to stand for election in 2027.
This, however, would not mark the end of the right-wing Rassemblement National, Dr. Charrier emphasized. The party’s current leader, Jordan Bardella, is using the time leading up to the 2027 election to tour the country and is presently enjoying high approval ratings. Dr. Charrier noted that close cooperation with the MAGA movement of the U.S. president is rather improbable, primarily due to a fundamental skepticism toward the United States. Nevertheless, contacts do exist, notably with the Heritage Foundation and the U.S. ambassador to France.
The strongest support for Bardella, however, comes from within France itself. Media entrepreneur and billionaire Vincent Bolloré, Dr. Charrier added, has made it his objective to bring the Rassemblement National to the presidential palace.
Dr. Charrier nevertheless stressed that a victory for Jordan Bardella is far from guaranteed. The French presidential election follows a logic of its own and is highly dependent on current trends and unforeseen events, such as the outbreak of the war in Ukraine or the late entry of a candidate into the presidential race. Moreover, candidates are required to prove themselves in expert interviews—an arena in which Bardella’s abilities are frequently questioned. At present, however, he is reframing this criticism as evidence of elite arrogance. The outcome of the presidential election therefore remains open.