As a result of the attack by the US and Israel, Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz. Cargo ships and tankers are congesting the strait, catapulting oil and gas prices to new heights. Only a few Chinese ships have been able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz so far.
According to Dr. Frank Umbach's assessment, the attack on Iran was driven by the hope of success, as had previously been sought in Venezuela. However, this expectation of rapid change in Iran has not been confirmed. The US government's current considerations to suspend or weaken sanctions on Russian oil would primarily play into Putin's hands: The increased revenue from oil sales could provide massive support to the Russian budget, which has recently been in distress.
Another possibility for a temporary reduction in oil prices would be the release of strategic reserves by the G7 countries. However, this measure would be limited in time due to limited supplies and would be ineffective in the event of a prolonged war in the region. According to Dr. Frank Umbach, careful consideration must therefore be given to when and whether to use this instrument. The large number of ship-launched missiles in Iran's possession is also proving particularly problematic. Even if the attacks by the US and Israel were to end, Iran would remain in a position to pose a permanent threat to international shipping.