Dr. Umbach emphasized that the bilateral dispute is unlikely to escalate, as the conflicts have historical roots and are driven by China's maritime ambitions. He sees the increased pressure from China's goal of reunification with Taiwan by 2027, which he believes is still receiving too little attention in Germany, as a particular trigger.
Dr. Umbach underscored that China is not a status quo power, but rather pursues territorial claims and is also influenced by Xi Jinping's personal ambitions. The new Japanese prime minister has not ruled out military intervention in the Taiwan conflict. According to Weber, however, this is not an entirely new development, as similar scenarios were already discussed in the 1990s, particularly with regard to the bilateral security alliance between the US and Japan and Japan's dependence on free sea lanes.
With regard to Germany, Umbach sees a growing awareness of the economic importance of sea lanes in the Asian region, but also continues to see a great distance to the region and sluggish implementation of strategic objectives. The presence of the German navy in the Indo-Pacific has increased, but actual initiatives and solutions to existing conflicts are still lacking.