Political scientist and security expert Dr. Frank Umbach warned right at the start of the discussion not to overestimate Russia's willingness to compromise. He observed that there is currently no indication that Russia has changed its war aims. On the contrary, the current situation is more likely to lead to “a Russian diktat peace,” according to Dr. Umbach. The political scientist recalled, for example, that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appeared at the summit meeting in Alaska last Friday wearing a sweater bearing the initials of the Soviet Union.
Dr. Umbach was skeptical about the possibility of a European peace mission by the recently formed “coalition of the willing” in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin would not accept such a mission for security and domestic political reasons. However, from the Kremlin's point of view, the deployment of a defensive and militarily limited blue helmet mission to secure the Russian-Ukrainian front would prove to be the more realistic alternative, as such a peacekeeping force would not have a deterrent effect on Russia, Dr. Umbach explained. In the event of a renewed Russian attack on Ukraine, any such UN peacekeeping mission would have little to counter Russia's superior forces – much to Ukraine's distress.