In the final days leading up to the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the poll numbers for the SPD and the Greens have stabilized. According to Prof. Dr. Kronenberg, it is not at all uncommon for polls to shift again shortly before elections. While it is foreseeable that the AfD will receive the majority of the votes, an absolute majority for AfD lead candidate Siegmund is by no means certain—and, given the latest polls, is actually rather unlikely.
A key factor, among others, is which and how many parties will clear the five-percent threshold and enter the state parliament. Sven Schulze would then face the challenge of forming a government with many smaller parties, many of which would be considered election losers. Various scenarios are on the table, including a grand coalition, support agreements, and the formation of a minority government. For the AfD, the key question is whether simply winning the most votes—or only securing an absolute majority—should be considered a victory.