25. March 2021

A new proactive target for Germany to combat SARS-CoV-2. Part 5: Risk incidence: starting simple A new proactive target for Germany to combat SARS-CoV-2. Part 5: Risk incidence: starting simple

Prof. Dr. Menno Baumann, Prof. Dr. Maximilian Mayer et. al.

Paper by Prof. Dr. Maximilian Mayer, among others, on Covid-19 and risk incidence (Toolbox #7: Risk Incidence, Toolbox #8: Just Start).

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The core of Toolboxes 7 and 8 is a clearer view of the local situation. TB #7 tries to better assess the risk for new infections based on incidences. This is done with the risk incidence (RI) metric, which is calculated from infections that pose an increased risk to the community, i.e., those whose origins and contacts are unclear. Once the clusters and contacts are identified and isolated, if necessary, they pose no further risk. Therefore, they are not considered in the RI.

Toolbox 8 uses the example of Saxony to show how a finer look at the data reveals a different, much more optimistic picture at the community level. Many municipalities have a low incidence and should be protected by measures as described in the Green Zone Model (Toolbox 1 "Green Zones"). It is important to note that in municipalities with a population below 100,000 (which is about 67% in Germany), the absolute number of cases (at least) should be taken into account.

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