First, Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad called for a differentiated view when discussing the international legal perspective on the war in Iran. In his opinion, wars are fundamentally to be condemned. At the same time, however, it must be borne in mind that Iran itself has repeatedly violated international law in the recent past.
With regard to the potential impact of the war on the stability of the regime, Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad sees little chance of regime change. Although the leadership is already enormously weakened militarily, in the long term the regime could even emerge from the conflict stronger and even more authoritarian.
He is skeptical about the deployment of Kurdish ground troops in Iran. Although Israel has plans for such a scenario and the Americans have recently signaled their support, it remains unclear whether the Kurds would actually be willing to do so. Donald Trump may instead tend to pursue a tactic similar to that used in Venezuela: a decapitation strike followed by an agreement with the remaining parts of the regime.
Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad believes that the democracy movement in Iran will only be successful if it is accompanied by consistent diplomatic and economic isolation of the country. In addition, he says, the civilian population needs to be clearly organized. Otherwise, he believes, there will probably be no profound changes in Iran.