Negotiations between the United States and Iran appear to have stalled, and the attack is intended to put pressure on the administration in Washington. Despite reports to the contrary, Iran remains militarily capable, particularly through the use of drones and missiles.
The diplomatic struggle over a framework agreement to end the war centers primarily on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has tied this to numerous conditions: for example, control over the strait, the lifting of U.S. sanctions, and the release of Iranian assets held abroad. Only then would it be conceivable to begin negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
The Iranian population is suffering from airstrikes, the difficult economic situation, high inflation, and supply shortages. At the same time, the Iranian regime—and in particular radical elements within the Revolutionary Guards—have been strengthened by the war.