At the core of his analysis is the insight that Europe must become more independent from the United States. At the latest since JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference last year, it has become clear that the U.S. is increasingly departing from shared values. This impression has been further reinforced by recent U.S. tariff policies, the 28-point plan, and the American security strategy. The Greenland crisis also revealed deep rifts in the transatlantic partnership: although agreement was reached on the issue, the loss of trust has been substantial.
Lucas points out that this development also reinforces Putin’s strategy of waiting until NATO potentially undermines itself. At the same time, the Greenland crisis demonstrated that a united and resolute Europe can stand up to the United States. According to Lucas, Europe now faces two central challenges: maintaining ongoing support for Ukraine and preserving NATO cohesion, which remains a central pillar of European security—especially given Europe’s continued reliance on U.S. nuclear deterrence.
In conclusion, Lucas outlines concrete policy recommendations for Europe. A more autonomous approach is urgently needed, particularly regarding the defense of its own territory, as the United States is gradually withdrawing from Europe. It is also essential to prevent Russia and the U.S. from negotiating a peace settlement in Ukraine that would come at the expense of Ukraine and Europe. Europe must proactively engage and clearly define its red lines.
Finally, Lucas emphasized that Europe is by no means powerless. The key lies in a unified and reliable stance that ensures the continent’s strategic capacity over the long term.