According to Dr. Joachim Weber, Ukraine’s resistance has been gradually weakening since the beginning of the war. However, this decline has not been linear but rather occurs in phases. So far, efforts have not fully prevented further advances by Russian forces, although their progress remains slow.
Regarding potential territorial concessions by Ukraine, Weber emphasized that these would largely depend on the security guarantees Europe is willing to provide. He considers it highly unlikely, however, that Russia would agree to the deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil.
At the same time, Ukraine faces a significant additional burden from ongoing Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure. European capacities are largely stretched, while compensation through American aid comes at a high cost. Furthermore, there are currently no signs of an imminent collapse of the Russian economy. Taken together, these factors could ultimately compel Ukraine to accept a peace settlement, even if it runs counter to its own interests.