The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely fragile. Despite initial successes in negotiations, hostilities could resume at any time. Against this backdrop, safe passage through the strait for civilian shipping still seems almost inconceivable. The deployment of European naval vessels also carries considerable risks at this time.
With regard to Ukraine, developments in naval warfare mirrored those on land: Drones and satellites provided significantly more surveillance data, which was being analyzed ever more quickly with the help of AI systems and, in some cases, already enabled automated decision-making. At the same time, it has become clear that even at sea, costly large-scale systems such as warships can be effectively countered by comparatively inexpensive assets, such as drones. For example, Ukraine has succeeded in significantly limiting the Russian Navy’s operational capabilities in the Black Sea.
The Russian “shadow fleet” was also a topic of discussion. In Brake’s view, it is legitimate for countries such as the United Kingdom or France to board and inspect Russian ships with questionable flag status that may be used to circumvent sanctions. From the perspective of maritime law, there is certainly still room for further action here. Germany, for example, could tighten its criminal laws to more effectively punish violations by ships in the shadow fleet.