Dr. Moritz Brake on the future of the Strait of Hormuz Dr. Moritz Brake on the future of the Strait of Hormuz

In an article by the Tagesspiegel, Dr. Moritz Brake analyses the multiple scenarios regarding the future of the Strait of Hormuz. He considers it out of the question that the U.S. could declare the Strait of Hormuz its own territory. While the U.S. could build up considerable military power in the region and thereby gain influence, even that would not offer absolute security. As long as Iran can credibly threaten to use mines, drones, missiles, or attacks on merchant ships, an unforeseeable risk will remain for captains, shipping companies, and insurers. In his view, an agreement granting Iran permanent control, toll collection, or veto rights would not be a long-term solution either, but merely a postponement of the problem. He sees no way back to the pre-war status quo in the short term, as signals of openness—such as those from Iranian negotiators—have already been thwarted on multiple occasions by the Revolutionary Guards, including through renewed attacks on ships.