The Russian president has flatly rejected Ukraine’s offer to negotiate. This makes a ceasefire unlikely, despite the tense domestic political situation in Russia. This is also because such a ceasefire would pose major problems for Russia: the Russian war economy cannot be converted to a civilian economy in the short term, and demobilizing Russian soldiers would create an internal security problem.
Furthermore, for the upcoming meeting of the E3 group in London, it is important that the Europeans coordinate with the Ukrainian president regarding possible negotiations. The question of a European negotiator and a mechanism for involving all European states in negotiations must also be clarified.
With regard to the fighting, Russia has barely been able to capture any new territory in recent months. Rather, Russian losses are now so high that they exceed recruitment numbers. The successful Ukrainian drone attacks in the Russian hinterland also demonstrate that Russia is no longer capable of adequately protecting strategic targets.