He emphasized that passage through the strait currently entails risks for cargo, ships, crews, and the environment that are difficult to calculate. This risk is borne primarily by ship captains and shipowners. The US president's promise to protect ships is therefore difficult to keep.
Dr. Moritz Brake emphasized that the risk of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz should be considered high. Laying mines is relatively easy and does not require a modern navy. In addition, there are various types of mines, some of which are difficult to locate.
Dr. Moritz Brake also sees the danger of a far-reaching escalation. The Iran conflict pits the interests of various major powers against each other: China and Russia are on Iran's side and thus against the US.
The blockade is already having major economic consequences. In addition to the sharp rise in oil prices, Dr. Moritz Brake predicts supply bottlenecks, especially in the Gulf region. One possible solution to this would be to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in convoy. In a convoy, the ships are under the command of the navy, and responsibility for damage to ships or the environment is transferred to the protecting state. These convoys are an option when states value the goods being transported more highly than the potential damage.