In light of the talks between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland, at least a short-term easing of tensions in Lebanon is conceivable. At the same time, however, both sides have distanced themselves domestically from the framework agreement that had already been reached. For instance, Tehran is once again raising the issue of imposing fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the nuclear issue in particular is unlikely to be resolved within the targeted 60 days—not least because Russia now supports Iran’s nuclear program.
Against this backdrop, it is unlikely that a potential agreement would achieve results similar to those of the JCPOA. Russia is now significantly more dependent on Iran than it was before 2022, partly because Moscow has lost considerable influence in the region following the fall of Assad. At the same time, there appears to be a growing conviction in Tehran that a nuclear deterrent is the most effective guarantee of its own security.